26 April 2018

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Here Come the Big Cap Tech Numbers - King Dollar

"Rising prices and collapsing confidence could portend that both inflation and slowing growth are looming, a sure recipe for stagflation."

Bloomberg, Markets Better Prepare For Stagflation

"Are you satisfied?"

James Butler Hickok, after the shootout with Davis Tutt 

If the US does fall into stagflation then it is clearly a time for systemic change in our decision and policy making, and the mass turnover of the old leadership and their elites.

Stagflation is a policy error de luxe, when not precipitated by a major exogenous supply shock like the oil embargo of the 1970s. Up until that point most economists did not even believe that stagflation was possible. 

It takes an extraordinary combination of almost purposefully bad decisions to create stagflation from within the policy choices of the economic system itself. Something like strangling economic demand by severely curbing income growth for the broad public while generously supplying easy money and selective asset inflation to the top one percent over a period of years might do it.

And it is a hell for the working public, that sees their income opportunities continue to stagnate while the prices of essentials continue to increase.

Alas, if there is stagflation I am sure the credibility trap will compel the propeller heads and their paymasters to find some scapegoat, or some elite friendly cause like a 'global trade war,' to carry the blame, rather than their own distorted, self-serving decision making.

I am posting the charts shortly after the close. I will most likely have to update them tomorrow.

Big cap tech is coming out after the bell, with Amazon, Microsoft, and Intel reporting their numbers. And the reaction so far in the stock futures has been 'enthusiastic' to say the least.

Gold and silver were off again today on further US Dollar strength. The lack of activity in the Comex gold warehouses, including Hong Kong, is remarkable.

Have a pleasant evening.

25 April 2018

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Precious Metals Options Expiration - Le Voilà

Stocks were on another wild ride today, as earnings are coming in well thanks to the big tax cut for corporations, but going forward growth is hard to justify.

A lack of organic growth in the non-subsidized economy may be discouraging organic demand.

The upward redistribution of wealth continues to suck the very life out of the real economy.  Never was so much owed by so few to so many.

Gold and silver were off a bit on the expiration as the Dollar, or is it King Dollar, rallied back to a short term high.

Have a pleasant evening.

24 April 2018

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Drawn to You - Comex Expiry Tomorrow

“In a room where people unanimously maintain a conspiracy of silence, one word of truth sounds like a pistol shot.”

Czesław Miłosz

"The world of finance is a mysterious world in which, incredible as the fact may appear, evaporation precedes liquidation. First the capital evaporates, and then the company goes into liquidation."

Joseph Conrad

“Give a man a fire and he's warm for a day, but set him on fire and he's warm for the rest of his life.”

Terry Pratchett

There is a profound, existential difference between the economy of the Devil and the economy of God.   It is not that we don't know the difference, as the rules have been laid down simply, frequently, and unequivocally.   It is just inconvenient to a certain type of perverse individualism.

The economy of God requires one to set aside themselves as the first priority, and their personal lust for money and power, and serve something greater— God and our fellows for His sake. 

This does not appeal to the underdeveloped or malformed who are not able to see beyond their own immediate needs, and those that beyond that, all things considered, would be as gods, and therefore will not serve.  Non serviam.

Stocks took a real tumble today.   Caterpillar announced its first quarter results which were quite good.  But on the conference call the CFO said that 'this is as good as it gets for 2018.'

And that sent US equities, which had been somewhat wobbly because of the climbing 10Yr yield, into a swoon.

The US Dollar fell off a bit from its recent highs, which helped to put a bid back under gold and silver.

As I have previously mentioned, the precious metals are trading primarily as an abstract instrument of value, like a fiat currency.   Little regard is being given to their nature as commodities.  This is more true for gold than for silver, because of the latter's significant industrial component.

Tomorrow will be the April Options Expiration for the precious metals on the Comex.

I expect the markets to continue to be volatile, moreso than the past twelve months or so.  This is because this Trump rally is built on an unsustainable foundation of lies and mispricings of risk.

At some point I believe that we will see a much more significant correction in stocks.  And then we will see what, and who, is left standing.

Have a pleasant evening.

23 April 2018

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - King Dollar Rallies - Comex Metals Option Expiration

"Propaganda is the executive arm of the invisible government."

Edward Bernays

"The lady doth protest too much methinks."

William Shakespeare, Hamlet

Stocks opened higher, but were a bit wobbly most of the day.  They managed to rally back into the close, ending up largely unchanged from the close last Friday.

The US Dollar was rallying from the overnight and hit a new high for the year. It is still within a longer term trading range however.

Despite what Larry Kudlow might say about the benefits of a stronger 'King Dollar', an unusually strong currency acts like a tax or tariff on a nation's exports, and a subsidy on its imports.

This is hardly what might support the grand plans for the renewal of American's economic growth. But it does favorite financiers for whom the dollar currency is an instrument of advantages.

Gold sold off almost one percent.  Silver fell a full three percent, giving back the gains from last week, losing the 17 handle in the process. 

There will be a Comex precious metals option expiration on this Wednesday, 25 April.  The expiry seems to be more significant for silver than for gold.   Perhaps this is one reason why silver was hammered so hard in particular today.

CNN is smearing those who question the corporate media narratives as 'extremists,' lumping genuine progressives in with neo-nazis and pedophiles.    Even the DNC did not go quite that far in their attacks on Bernie Sanders and the progressive grass roots of their own party in 2016.

The slow winding of the credibility trap is going to lead the self-anointed into paranoia and retribution.   How else can Hillary explain why she was denied her presidency?   And how will Trumpolini explain the coming collapse in all his grand economic plans for revitalization?

I get the odd feeling that the public will at least pick up the tab for all these grand delusions, and perhaps even end up being the whipping boy for the failure of the anointed.

Have a pleasant evening.